Disclaimer: Views expressed by author do not necessarily
represent the views of the Council of American Ambassadors.
AMBASSADOR EDWARD GABRIEL
October 28, 2024
Israel’s war against Hezbollah has dangerously reinforced rifts within Lebanese society about the country’s involvement in the Gaza war. While Israel’s devastating military campaign has rallied a majority against the Israeli incursion, including those most hard hit in the south, it has also buttressed and mobilized those sovereigntist voices who staunchly opposed Hezbollah and have even welcomed its demise. This split within Lebanese society raises the specter of serious sectarian violence leading top political figures to come together in calling for solidarity and unity. As the country enters the dangerous phase of “day after” scenarios, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), one of the few non-partisan and widely respected institutions, has an important role to play in pre-empting hostilities and shielding civilians from further conflict, but also in helping shepherd the country towards a new chapter in its history.
Since this war began, the heavy bombardments across the country targeting Hezbollah’s infrastructure have killed over 2400 civilians and led to hordes of fleeting residents (mostly Shi’a) from the south in search of safety and shelter. To date, an estimated 1.3 million have already been internally displaced from this conflict, requiring $250 million a month in international assistance. Though initially justified as a limited war in support of Gaza, it has become anything but as daily strikes in Lebanon intensify and Israel pursues its relentless purge of Hezbollah, not stopping until it reaches its goals, i.e., until the group surrenders.
While the United States has failed to restrain Israel in this war, it can now step in to help strengthen the LAF, ensuring that it takes control of the border region and the Lebanese state reclaims its sovereignty. With their limited mandate, United Nations peacekeeping forces operating on the “Blue Line” separating Lebanon and Israel have been unable to fulfil their mission, underscoring the Lebanese state’s powerlessness when it comes to its own sovereignty. This is why the LAF has a unique role to play now in helping stabilize the situation and mitigating tensions generated from the widespread distress and dislocation of one community in particular, the Shi’a. It is also expected to have a significant role to play after a ceasefire is reached, especially in implementing a long-term solution based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
To date, the Lebanese government has not directed the LAF to carry out its mission to disarm all militias. It should take an immediate step in this direction to show that it is serious about deploying the army to the border by issuing a directive that fully empowers that LAF to carry out its duties. Such a measure would build confidence with Israel and increase the chances of finding a sustainable, long-term resolution to this crisis.
At this juncture, electing a president–, which the country has not had for almost two years— and forming a new government are concomitant steps to ensure that Lebanon abides by its international commitments. However, this needs to be carefully managed, so as not to be perceived as imposed either by the international community or by one side of the political spectrum on a community that is leaderless, shocked and whose leadership is still armed. Indeed, any attempts perceived to be sidelining the Shi’a will only fuel sectarian tensions. While it is necessary to elect a reform-minded, sovereigntist president who can usher in Lebanon’s new mandate, imposing one without the acquiescence of all of Lebanon’s constituents can only deepen rifts.
On the other hand, a push to deploy the army across all regions to fill any vacuum left by Hezbollah would be welcome by all: it would project confidence and could even lay the ground for a new defense strategy, central to which would be the army as sole bearer of arms and defender of the state. But, for it to take place, the international community--first among which is the US--, needs to fully fund the LAF with the necessary troops, equipment, and training to take command and control of its borders. Such a commitment could reach $1 billion dollars, but as several members of Congress have expressed, “if it results in a long term solution to the hostilities between Lebanon and Israel, and sets Lebanon on a new path to stability, security and prosperity, this would be a small price to pay.” Embedding US and allied troops within the LAF to train them could speed up its readiness and help ensure that tensions within Lebanon do not boil over into civil war, while signaling to Israel its commitment to enduring peace and stability.
Edward Gabriel is the President of the American Task Force on Lebanon and former US Ambassador to Morocco.
_________________________________________________________________
Comments